Modelling COVID-19 effect on the performance of MENA Health-care sector

PurposeThis study models the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of the private health-care sector in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. This paper aims to address the economic, societal and sustainability of the health-care sector.Design/methodology/approachData were collected from Bloomberg and the sample consists of 534 firm-year observations from 55 firms listed over 2010–2020. The authors apply panel data and control for the country and governance effects.FindingsThe authors found heterogeneous results regarding the three sub-sectors. The pandemic has a negative effect on the accounting and market performances of the "Pharmaceutical companies” and an insignificant impact on "Healthcare Management and Facilities Services.” Moreover, the impact of COVID-19 on health-care firms' performance depends on the country's economic classification and the degree of regulatory and governance frameworks.Research limitations/implicationsFurther studies may consider a larger sample and other regions. It is recommended to address the health-care sector's challenges to invest in new technologies such as "digital twin” and predictive and personalized medicine. It is worth testing model development theory and its effects on speeding up and designing models to ensure the proper functioning and developing mathematics to determine uncertainties in patient data and model predictions.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper is novel as it is unique in modeling the impact of COVID-19 on the health-care public companies in the MENA region. The findings pinpoint firms' and countries' heterogeneous impacts on financial and market performances.

Adapting to the new normal: The impact of remote work on firm performance in Jordan and Morocco

Businesses have been impacted particularly hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a decline in productivity. Whether a remote work policy boosts the firm's productivity is still debatable. We use the COVID-19 World Bank Enterprise Survey, a cross-sectional dataset that covers Jordan and Morocco, to empirically examine this question. We use the propensity score matching technique to estimate the causal effect between remote work and firm performance. Results suggest the existence of a positive impact, suggesting that remote work policies cause an increase in productivity. In a further investigation, we perform our regression by country and firm size. Coefficients are found to remain positive in both countries but statistically significant only in Morocco. Regarding firm size, coefficients are found to be positive and statistically significant across all models. The paper offers some recommendations for policymakers in both countries to mitigate the ongoing crisis on firm performance.

Coping Strategies, well-being and inequalities during the COVID-19 pandemic period.

As a response to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments around the globe have carried on strict lockdown measures affecting millions of jobs, public life, and the well-being of people. This study examines people's subjective well-being, such as the perception of the economic situation and mental well-being, who made adjustments to cope with the earning losses. We estimate the well-being cost, which is the money required to compensate people because of the reduction in earnings or employment loss and the coping strategy followed to bring their well-being to the levels of those who have not adopted any coping strategy. We examine two outcomes; the perception of the economic situation and a mental well-being index. We employ data from the ERF COVID-19 MENA Monitor Surveys for Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia. The results show that coping strategies with earning losses impact well-being and are associated with high costs. In most cases, the coping strategies of borrowing from banks and selling assets present the highest well-being costs. Furthermore, the estimates highlight significant discrepancies across gender and types of workers, such as those employed in the informal sector and temporary contracts. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12144-023-04710-1.

Vascular e-Learning in the MENA Region during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Introduction: With the steady rise in interest in e-learning and the sudden boost provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic, it becomes necessary to explore the e-learning experience within the medical community in the MENA region. Methods: An online survey was conducted during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (June 15 - October 15, 2020). Results: Seventy-eight vascular surgeons and trainees from 16 countries participated. 88% of the participants were male. 55% attended more than 4 activities. More than half of the activities did not lead to any official certification. Topic was the primary determinant for attending an activity. National societies and social media played a major role in disseminating activity-related information. Lack of time, increased workload, differences in time zone, and technical issues were the main obstacles cited. 84.7% of the participants had a positive impression. Conclusion: As the COVID-19 pandemic boosted e-learning activities in vascular surgery, a shift was observed in the learning mode and new leadership skills were called upon. Novel ways of quality control are required.

The Predictive Power of Financial Stress on the Financial Markets Dynamics: Hidden Markov Model

This study investigates the predictive power of the financial stress on the dynamic of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) financial market returns from 2007 to 2021. Based on a Quantile Regression, we show that financial stress has highest predictive abilities at the lower quantiles when the market is bearish. Then, we propose a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based on the transition matrix to understand the relationship between financial stress index and the MENA stock market dynamics. We find that the effect of financial stress on stock market return reveals the persistence of regimes: Bullish state exists and persists, and has the longest conditional expected duration for the majority of MENA markets, except Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan. However, the transition probability from the bullish to the calm regime is too low for the financial market of Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Besides, the estimated mean returns for each regime divulge that the bearish and calm states are more attractive destination for both portfolio managers and investors. © 2022, Academy of Economics and Finance.

Bank performance before and during the COVID-19 crisis: Does efficiency play a role?

This study aims to evaluate the effect of efficiency and banking market structure on bank performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The relationship between efficiency and bank performance in the countries in the MENA region during the COVID-19 outbreak has not been examined. We use data for 225 banks in 18 MENA countries and find that bank performance strongly depends on the efficiency level and market power of banks. Furthermore, we investigate whether efficiency and market competition effects are significantly different between the two banking systems (Islamic and conventional). Our results indicate that efficiency and competition have a greater influence on the profitability level of conventional than Islamic banks. However, the efficiency impact is only marginally significant during the COVID-19 outbreak. Overall, our results suggest that managing a higher efficiency level leads to improved financial stability but, at the same time, increases the bank's appetite for taking higher risks. These findings deepen the existing notion that efficient banks are more resilient during global financial crises and emphasize the importance of bank regulatory reforms that boost efficiency in standing against the negative consequences of the recent (COVID-19) crisis.

When the Secular Meets the Sacred : Islamic Peace Model for Post-COVID Muslim-Majority War-Torn Contexts

The recent crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic has put an additional strain on academia to find solutions to advance peace, especially in war-torn, underdeveloped, and ethno-linguistically fragmented societies such as those in the MENA region. Given the religio-cultural heritage of its people, it was quite natural for the current research to engage with a new Islamic peace model with the intention of gaining some clarity on the possibility of its application. The methodological framework is based on the main normative religious text and is simultaneously informed by the practice of the Prophet (peace be upon him). The study’s findings render the model difficult to be implemented without the erection of certain provisionary structures, which would create a strong institutional and morally saturated foundation to secure long-lasting peace.

The Predictive Power of Financial Stress on the Financial Markets Dynamics: Hidden Markov Model

This study investigates the predictive power of the financial stress on the dynamic of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) financial market returns from 2007 to 2021. Based on a Quantile Regression, we show that financial stress has highest predictive abilities at the lower quantiles when the market is bearish. Then, we propose a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based on the transition matrix to understand the relationship between financial stress index and the MENA stock market dynamics. We find that the effect of financial stress on stock market return reveals the persistence of regimes: Bullish state exists and persists, and has the longest conditional expected duration for the majority of MENA markets, except Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan. However, the transition probability from the bullish to the calm regime is too low for the financial market of Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Egypt. Besides, the estimated mean returns for each regime divulge that the bearish and calm states are more attractive destination for both portfolio managers and investors. © 2022, Academy of Economics and Finance.

How does bank liquidity creation affect non-performing loans in the MENA region?

Purpose>The study aims to empirically examine the effect of bank liquidity creation on non-performing loans (NPLs) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.Design/methodology/approach>Berger and Bouwman's (2009) three-step methodology was employed to calculate the level of liquidity creation of a selected sample of 111 commercial banks in ten MENA countries from 2010–2017. Next, the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator was used to investigate the linkage between bank liquidity creation and NPLs.Findings>The results demonstrated a significant negative effect of bank liquidity creation on NPLs in the short and long term, implying that liquidity creation through both on- and off-balance sheet activities decreases NPLs. These findings accord with the “economic-enhancing” view. Furthermore, regression analysis investigated whether this relationship remained similar for Islamic and conventional banks. The results showed that liquidity creation diminishes Islamic and conventional bank NPLs.Research limitations/implications>The empirical findings raise several significant policy implications. Bank liquidity creation may decrease rather than increase NPLs, although the process of liquidity creation is viewed as risky by rendering banks more illiquid. Therefore, policy-makers should encourage bank liquidity creation to stimulate the economy. In a robust economy, borrowers are more likely to repay their debts, consequently diminishing banks' NPLs.Originality/value>To the best of the author's knowledge, the current study is the first to provide empirical evidence on the effect of bank liquidity creation on NPLs in MENA countries.

Modelling COVID-19 effect on the performance of MENA Health-care sector

Purpose This study models the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the performance of the private health-care sector in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. This paper aims to address the economic, societal and sustainability of the health-care sector. Design/methodology/approach Data were collected from Bloomberg and the sample consists of 534 firm-year observations from 55 firms listed over 2010-2020. The authors apply panel data and control for the country and governance effects. Findings The authors found heterogeneous results regarding the three sub-sectors. The pandemic has a negative effect on the accounting and market performances of the "Pharmaceutical companies" and an insignificant impact on "Healthcare Management and Facilities Services." Moreover, the impact of COVID-19 on health-care firms' performance depends on the country's economic classification and the degree of regulatory and governance frameworks. Research limitations/implications Further studies may consider a larger sample and other regions. It is recommended to address the health-care sector's challenges to invest in new technologies such as "digital twin" and predictive and personalized medicine. It is worth testing model development theory and its effects on speeding up and designing models to ensure the proper functioning and developing mathematics to determine uncertainties in patient data and model predictions. Originality/value To the best of the authors' knowledge, this paper is novel as it is unique in modeling the impact of COVID-19 on the health-care public companies in the MENA region. The findings pinpoint firms' and countries' heterogeneous impacts on financial and market performances.

The COVID-19 Outbreak and Risk–Return Spillovers between Main and SME Stock Markets in the MENA Region

This study investigates return and asymmetric volatility spillovers and dynamic correlations between the main and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) stock markets in Saudi Arabia and Egypt for the periods before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Return and volatility spillovers are modelled using a VAR-asymmetric BEKK–GARCH (1,1) model, while a VAR-asymmetric DCC–GARCH (1,1) model is employed to model the dynamic conditional correlations between these markets, which are then used to determine and explore portfolio design and hedging implications. The results show that while bidirectional return spillovers between the main and SME stock markets are limited to Saudi Arabia, shock and volatility spillovers have different characteristics and dynamics in both main–SME market pairs. In addition, the dynamic correlations between the main and SME markets are mostly positive and have notably increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in Saudi Arabia, suggesting that adding SME stocks to a main stock portfolio enhances its risk-adjusted return, especially during tranquil market phases. One practical implication of our results is that the development of SME stock markets can indirectly contribute to economic development via the main market channel and provide an avenue for portfolio diversification and risk management.

Locus of control as a moderator of the effects of COVID-19 perceptions on job insecurity, psychosocial, organisational, and job outcomes for MENA region hospitality employees

We develop and test an integrated model to understand how individual differences based on internal or external locus of control influence the effects of COVID-19 perceptions on job insecurity, anxiety, alienation, job satisfaction, customer orientation, organisational citizenship behaviour (OCB), and turnover intention among customer service employees within hospitality organisations in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. The investigation utilises variance-based structural equation modelling to evaluate a sample of 847 subject responses. We found that externally controlled employees are more likely to develop negative emotions resulting from pandemic-triggered job insecurity as well as poorer customer orientation and engagement in OCB due to worsened job satisfaction than those internally controlled. Wholistically, COVID-19 perceptions tend to indirectly hit externally controlled employees? anxiety, customer orientation, and OCB more intensely than those with internal locus of control.

Exploring Household Food Dynamics During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Morocco.

Alongside the dramatic impact on health systems, eating, shopping, and other food-related habits may have been affected by the COVID-19 crisis. This paper analyses the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food shopping habits and food-related activities of a diverse sample of 340 adult consumers in Morocco. The study is based on an online survey conducted in Morocco from September 15 to November 5, 2020, utilizing a standardized questionnaire delivered in French and Arabic via Survey Monkey. The findings show that consumers' diet, shopping behavior, and food interactions have changed significantly. Indeed, the survey outcomes indicated (i) an increase in the consumption of local items owing to food safety concerns; (ii) an increase in online grocery shopping; (iii) a rise in panic buying and food hoarding; and (iv) an increase in culinary capabilities. The findings are expected to help guide Morocco's current emergency measures as well as long-term food-related policies.

National approaches to managing cancer care: responses of countries in the MENA region to the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic presents serious challenges to cancer care because of the associated risks from the infection itself and the disruption of care delivery. Therefore, many professional societies have published recommendations to help manage patients with cancer during the current pandemic. The objective of our study is to assess the national responses of Middle East North Africa (MENA) countries in terms of publishing relevant guidelines and analyse various components of these guidelines. METHODS: A survey based on the preliminary review of the literature regarding cancer care adaptations has been developed and then completed by a group of oncologists from the following Arab countries affected by the pandemic: Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen. The survey inquired about COVID-19 cases, national recommendations regarding general measures of COVID-19 prevention and patient care in oncology as well as their implementation about cancer care adaptations during the pandemic. RESULTS: Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic-related guidelines revealed at least 30 specific recommendations that we categorised into seven essential components. All included countries had national guidelines except one country. Estimated full compliances with all specific category recommendations ranged from 30% to 69% and partial compliance ranged from 23% to 61%. CONCLUSION: There is a very good response and preparedness in the Arab Middle East and North Africa region surveyed. However, there are inconsistencies in the various components of the guidelines across the region, which reflects the evolving status of the pandemic in each country as well as the lack of clear evidence-based guidelines for many of the issues in question. There is a need for a clear framework on essential components that should be included in these guidelines to assure providing the best guidance to the oncology community.

COVID-19 and diabetes from IDF MENA region.

The whole world are facing the current COVID-19 pandemic, the most serious health crisis in modern times. All countries with the support of national and international agencies are making great efforts to fight this devastating pandemic with disastrous medical, economic and social consequences. This pandemic affects all people but it's serious in case of diabetes, elderly and in chronic and complicated diseases. The current work on the theme " COVID-19 and Diabetes" attempts to bring together all the data available at MENA level through medical and scientific publications. It also includes all the efforts made by the governments and the responses of associations and their efforts in this field. Even if it is admitted that diabetes with its comorbidity represents a high risk factor for severe forms and mortality, the health consequences of the epidemic, does not seem as dramatic in terms of both morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 with diabetes in the majority of MENA countries. If the crises continues longer, the supply of insulin, oral drugs, self monitoring equipment of diabetes and other tools, will be affected. To this, we must expect great difficulties in supplying food for many countries. Certainely, it is important to remember that containment and hygiene measures, associated with other factors such as the young average age of the population, the higher temperature in these countries, the differences in the immune status of populations and the role of BCG vaccine have something to do with it. All of this deserves to be studied in depth.

The differential mental health impact of COVID-19 in Arab countries.

COVID-19 pandemic's mental health impact on Arab countries is under-researched. The goal of this investigation was to study the differential impact of COVID-19 on the mental health of Arab countries. A questionnaire including measures of COVID-19 traumatic stress, PTSD, depression, anxiety, and cumulative stressors and trauma was distributed anonymously online in seven Arab countries (Egypt (N = 255), Kuwait (N = 442), Jordan (N = 216), Saudi Arabia (N = 212, Algeria (N = 110), Iraq and Palestine (N = 139)). We used ANOVA and stepwise regression to analyze the data. For each country, regression, PTSD, depression, and anxiety were dependent variables; we entered in the first-step, gender, age, religion, education, and income. In the second step, we entered "cumulative stressors and traumas." In the third step, we entered COVID-19 traumatic stress. The ANOVA results indicated that the differences in COVID19 traumatic stress, PTSD, depression, and anxiety between the countries were significant. Post-hoc analysis indicated that Egypt is significantly higher than all the other Arab countries in COVID-19 traumatic stress, PTSD, anxiety, and depression. The subsample from Palestine and Iraq had a significantly higher cumulative trauma load than the other Arab countries but did not have higher levels of COVID-19 traumatic stress or PTSD. Stepwise regression indicated that COVID-19 traumatic stress accounted for significant variance above and beyond the variance accounted for by previous cumulative stressors and traumas for anxiety in all countries and PTSD and depression in all countries except for Algeria. We discussed the implications for these results for the urgent mental health needs of Arab countries.

Online Temptations: COVID-19 and Religious Misinformation in the MENA Region.

During the coronavirus pandemic, religious misinformation has been found on social media platforms causing fear, confusion, and polluting the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region's online sphere. Exploring cases of religious clickbait in the form of false hadiths and viral religious advice from religious figures entrenched in the MENA's political elite, this essay discusses how new dynamics for religion in the age of the Internet are contributing to a uniquely regional and religious form of misinformation. This essay looks at how the phenomenon of religious misinformation is a defining characteristic of the MENA's online sphere, becoming even more acute during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19): Potential implications for weak health systems and conflict zones in the Middle East and North Africa region.

This short communication recognizes the underbelly of weak and conflict-prone health systems in the Middle East and North Africa region in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic. The communication highlights how the lack of basic resources, absence of a well-functioning health system and the dearth of well-coordinated communication channels, can bode ill for the successful fight against COVID-19. The article elucidates COVID-19 potential health, social, and economic implications for such countries. The communication cautions that if COVID-19 is left to incubate and makes a home in weak systems, it will have a much better chance of mutating and coming back to infect many people globally. The communication calls on the international institutions in collaboration with developed nations to be prepared to probe up health systems in weak and conflict-prone health systems with much-needed resources in order to nip COVID-19 in the bud.